Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(8:22) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to LV 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-T.Davis to LV 40 for 1 yard (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model