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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 45-A.Ingold up the middle to IND 41 for 1 yard (58-B.Okereke, 26-C.Geathers).

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model