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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 56

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to LV 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.96 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model