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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal to LV 40 for 6 yards (29-L.Joyner). PENALTY on LV-94-C.Liuget, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.05 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model