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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 91

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to IND 32, Center-47-T.Sieg. 80-C.Rogers to IND 47 for 15 yards (47-T.Sieg).

The Three Options

GO -3.47 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.87 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 91, worth -5.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model