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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-47-T.Sieg. 80-C.Rogers to IND 35 for 19 yards (85-D.Carrier).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 30, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model