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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:08) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to CHI 10, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen. PENALTY on CHI-33-D.Shelley, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model