4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 56

Chicago Bears 16 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(2:43) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 21 for 9 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.59 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model