Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 56

Chicago Bears 16 – Minnesota Vikings 0

(7:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to MIN 8, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.57 EP
70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model