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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(11:00) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to CHI 18, Center-58-A.Cutting. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 34 for 16 yards (84-I.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.03 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model