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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 88

Chicago Bears 16 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 64 yards to MIN 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 28 for 4 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.25 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 88, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP