Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 16

(1:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at CHI 30 for 39 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

What Happened

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model