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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 43

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 4-C.Daniel right guard to MIN 42 for 1 yard (93-S.Stephen). Measurement

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.40 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model