4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(8:11) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to CHI 21, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model