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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 8

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(:04) 15-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.14 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model