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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 55

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 18 for 8 yards (27-S.McManis). PENALTY on MIN-98-L.Joseph, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 10.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.86 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP