Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

(4:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 84-I.Ford to MIA 48 for 2 yards (27-J.Watkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.44 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP