4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 33

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Field Goal formation) 1-T.Long 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.60 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model