Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 99

Miami Dolphins 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 46 yards to MIA 47, Center-46-T.Pepper. 20-D.King to MIA 38 for 9 yards (81-D.Smythe). PENALTY on LAC-35-T.Pope, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 46.

The Three Options

GO -4.22 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.62 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 99, worth -6.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model