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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Field Goal formation) 1-T.Long 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.25 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -2.10 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.91 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -1.17 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model