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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 26

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:17) (Field Goal formation) 1-T.Long 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model