Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

(12:07) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to LAC 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.40 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model