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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 12

Miami Dolphins 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model