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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 18, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model