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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Detroit Lions 30

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to KC 49 for 15 yards (25-W.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.52 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -2.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model