Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Detroit Lions 23

(6:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DET 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-49-D.Sorensen.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.36 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 61, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model