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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 7

Detroit Lions 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.55 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 7, worth +0.66 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.61 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model