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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 35

Detroit Lions 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.16 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model