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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 29

Detroit Lions 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.23 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model