Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 79

Detroit Lions 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(8:18) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to KC 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.67 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model