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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to DET 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to DET 16 for -1 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 26, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP