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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 5

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP