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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New Orleans Saints 12

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NO 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.73 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 40, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP