Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 12 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to DAL 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-T.Austin ran ob at DAL 20 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on DAL-38-J.Heath, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.33 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model