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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New Orleans Saints 12

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 6-C.Jones punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.21 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP