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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 8

New Orleans Saints 9 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.57 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 8, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP