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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(1:36) (Run formation) 21-E.Elliott right guard to DAL 45 for 2 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at DAL 44. 24-V.Bell to DAL 44 for no gain (21-E.Elliott). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.03 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model