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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NO 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-D.Harris to NO 49 for 23 yards (53-J.March-Lillard).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model