Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(11:40) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to BAL 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 27-C.Jones pushed ob at BAL 36 for 14 yards (88-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.75 EP
56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model