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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 30 – Baltimore Ravens 18

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 4-A.Seibert 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.29 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model