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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 69

Baltimore Ravens 18 – Cleveland Browns 30

What Actually Happened

(8:19) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left to 89-M.Andrews.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.63 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model