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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.11 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model