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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.73 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model