Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(13:39) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to BAL 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model