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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 30-J.Conner up the middle to CIN 42 for no gain (40-B.Wilson, 94-S.Hubbard).

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.16 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model