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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CIN 44 for -8 yards (94-T.Alualu).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.49 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model