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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 10

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:25) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP