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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(4:29) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard up the middle to CIN 37 for 3 yards (48-B.Dupree).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model