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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.19 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model