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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(11:08) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 87-C.Uzomah INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Barron at PIT -7. Touchback (87-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP